For the man who can have everything, there really is agony in choice. In addition to attempting to recoup some of his spectacular recent losses, Roman Abramovich will spend the next two months pondering who to appoint as the next permanent manager of Chelsea, a decision sure to have a huge bearing on the club’s future. Given the state of his finances and the age of Chelsea’s playing staff, it is one that he cannot afford to get wrong.

It is ironic that the man Abramovich really wants appears to be out of bounds, even to him. The Chelsea owner spent a considerable amount of time working on Guus Hiddink before the Dutchman reluctantly agreed to step into the void in exceptional circumstances — he is also coach of Russia — as a special favour, on the proviso that it would be until the end of the season only. That understanding remains unaltered.

Hiddink repeated his oft-stated intention to leave Stamford Bridge in the summer in a series of interviews with Dutch television yesterday, yet nagging doubts remain. As a source close to Abramovich put it: “I’d say there’s no chance of him staying, but I don’t want to be called a liar in a couple of months. In football anything can happen, especially at Chelsea.”

If one of the few people to speak regularly with Abramovich is unwilling to second-guess his intentions, it would be reckless for anyone else to put their mortgage on the identity of the next Chelsea manager.

One fallacy that can be laid to rest is the fond hope that a glorious end to the season could persuade Hiddink to stay. The Dutchman expected success when he arrived at the club in February and, in the short term at least, has delivered plenty of it, keeping them in the hunt for the Barclays Premier League, the Champions League and the FA Cup until the final weeks of the season, when under Luiz Felipe Scolari the side appeared to have little prospect of winning anything.

The 62-year-old is as hard-headed and pragmatic as they come, however, and it will take more than a few teary eyes from fans and even players to change his mind. Any U-turn will come after a sober and private conversation with Abramovich, with a decision made in the context of its implications for the Russian Football Union and the wider Russian political world.

One of the biggest imponderables for Abramovich is how far he can push his luck with the powers that be in Moscow. As a man whose first flush of wealth was the direct result of patronage from the Kremlin, he knows better than anyone the value of politicking and will not do anything to damage his present good standing. The importance of Chelsea to him and their place in his pecking order of interests cannot be known either, other than that he has no plans to sell the club in the immediate future.

The difficulty in predicting Abramovich’s plans, even for those who work for him, is that he often appears to operate on a whim. As another one of his associates said yesterday: “Roman could change his mind five times between now and the end of the season about who he wants as manager, whether he will try and make Hiddink stay or whether he is happy to let him go. We’ll only really know when he makes his final decision and the man is in place.”

Such prevarication has been noticeable in the past, often to Chelsea’s cost. It is widely known that Abramovich would have been prepared to give Claudio Ranieri another season had he delivered the Champions League in 2004, while he did change his mind regarding the date of José Mourinho’s departure, resolving to sack him in the summer of 2007 but coming to a compromise that enabled him to start the next season, which with hindsight proved to be a mistake.

Abramovich’s aides have also claimed that his mind was swayed last summer, when he ignored an initial preference for Carlo Ancelotti to appoint Scolari, which turned out to be a monumental error.

Ancelotti features prominently in his thoughts at the moment, though history indicates that completing the deal will prove difficult. AC Milan insist that their coach is going nowhere and talking to the Italian club can be tortuous, as Manchester City discovered when they tried to sign Kaká. When the club president is capable of comparing the aftermath of an earthquake to a holiday camp, as Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, did this week, it suggests that negotiations could take a while.

Ancelotti would be a risky appointment in any case, as his range of experience is even narrower than that of Scolari, having worked in only one country during his managerial career. The paucity of other obvious candidates makes him a plausible favourite, although Frank Rijkaard and Dick Advocaat, the Dutch coaches, cannot be ruled out.

Whoever is appointed will inherit an ageing squad in need of serious surgery, making it all the more important that Abramovich gets it right first time, as Hiddink cannot be relied upon to ride to the rescue again. Abramovich has enjoyed his share of good fortune in the past, ending up with Mourinho when he initially went for Sven-Göran Eriksson, and could do with getting lucky again.